Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable) Plan

Bismarck, ND 58503

$134,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 290 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,035
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-389/mo
• Annual: $-4,671/yr
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $55,244

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $134k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #39 of 236 statewide, top 21%, 382 students, 23% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 748 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major: exterior siding — Severe wear and possible rot.
• Major: flooring — Visible wear and potential damage.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Significant wear and peeling paint.
• Major: HVAC condensers — In poor condition, indicating potential HVAC issues.
• Major: landscaping — Minimal landscaping and curb appeal features are present.