Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable) Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$134,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Townhouse · 290 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 289 days

🏗️ New construction. The $134,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $197,302.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $134k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #39 of 236 statewide, top 21%, 382 students, 23% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 748 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,302
• List price: $134,000
• Delta: -32.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Owens Ave #7	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	871 (-2%)	5mo	$203,000	$233	60
601 Interstate Ave #1	0.82mi	2/1.0 (+1)	986 (+11%)	1mo	$128,900	$131	42
1727 Grandview Ln N #211	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	760 (-15%)	23mo	$116,000	$153	38
2121 Washington St #11	1.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,047 (+18%)	2mo	$129,000	$123	34
228 Turnpike Ave W #5	1.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	981 (+10%)	15mo	$119,900	$122	30
707 Interstate Ave E	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+18%)	11mo	$159,900	$151	28
701 Interstate Ave E	0.72mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+18%)	11mo	$169,900	$161	27
2033 Washington St N #2	1.07mi	1/1.0	749 (-16%)	17mo	$119,900	$160	26
607 E Interstate Ave #3	0.81mi	2/1.0 (+1)	980 (+10%)	22mo	$125,000	$128	25
2026 Kavaney Dr N #11	1.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,047 (+18%)	13mo	$129,900	$124	24
2135 Washington St N #7	1.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,047 (+18%)	16mo	$136,900	$131	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-50,227
• Equity at exit: $29,418

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-45,921
• Equity at exit: $17,059

Cash invested: $55,244 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 748
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,035
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,726

Max offer price $140,977

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-321	+0% $-389	+5% $-457	+10% $-526
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-438	+0% $-389	+5% $-341	+10% $-292
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-339	base $-389	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,325
• Closing costs: $5,919
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 Burnt Boat Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	825	$1,225	$1.48	0d	1	0.30mi
1825 Burnt Boat Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	162d	2	0.34mi
2141 Xavier St Unit 312 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,215	$1.14	162d	1	0.53mi
2141 Xavier St Apt 203 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,165	$1.15	1d	1	0.53mi
2112 Grimsrud Dr Unit 2112-104 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	972	$1,420	$1.46	1d	1	0.54mi
2112 Grimsrud Dr Unit 2113-102 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	972	$1,445	$1.49	1d	1	0.54mi
2112 Grimsrud Dr Unit 2113-303 Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	720	$1,245	$1.73	1d	1	0.54mi
1121 W Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	825	$978	$1.18	0d	3	0.54mi
2055 Xavier St Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,210	$1.16	162d	1	0.56mi
2113 Grimsrud Dr Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$1,245	$1.47	0d	3	0.57mi
1200 W Owens Ave #9 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	828	$2,100	$2.54	10d	1	0.58mi
2724 Hawken St Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	764	$1,010	$1.32	0d	1	0.87mi
205 W Interstate Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	652	$950	$1.46	2d	3	1.09mi
205 W Interstate Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	652	$840	$1.29	162d	4	1.09mi
121 W Interstate Ave #4 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	162d	1	1.11mi
415 Fraine Barracks Rd Unit 107 Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	51d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: PlanStatus: Active
• Financial info: Listed price $134,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Plan: Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable)
• Exterior features: 891 living area (unit size)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $134,000 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $134,000 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $134,000 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $134,000 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $134,000 Active 286 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $134,000 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $134,000 Active 283 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $134,000 Active 282 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $134,000 Active 281 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $134,000 Active 280 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $134,000 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $134,000 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $134,000 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $134,000 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $134,000 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $134,000 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $134,000 Active 273 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $134,000 Active 272 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $134,000 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $134,000 Active 270 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $134,000 Active 269 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $134,000 Active 268 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $134,000 Active 267 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $134,000 Active 266 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $134,000 Active 265 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $134,000 Active 264 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $134,000 Active 263 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $134,000 Active 262 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $134,000 Active 261 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $134,000 Active 260 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $134,000 Active 259 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $134,000 Active 258 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $134,000 Active 257 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $134,000 Active 256 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $134,000 Active 255 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 254 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 253 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 252 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $134,000 Active 251 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $134,000 Active 250 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $134,000 Active 249 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $134,000 Active 248 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $134,000 Active 247 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $134,000 Active 246 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $134,000 Active 245 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $134,000 Active 244 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $134,000 Active 243 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $134,000 Active 241 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $134,000 Active 240 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $134,000 Active 239 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,052
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$987
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,740
• Taxable loss: −$8,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $44,550–$80,190 screening

This townhouse requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof, siding, flooring, HVAC system, and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and possible rot.
• Major flooring — Visible wear and potential damage.
• Major interior walls/paint — Significant wear and peeling paint.
• Major HVAC condensers — In poor condition, indicating potential HVAC issues.
• Major landscaping — Minimal landscaping and curb appeal features are present.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint would greatly enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal — New landscaping and curb appeal features would significantly enhance the home's value and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School C ND #39/236 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Horizon Middle School D+ ND #13/35 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Century High School C- ND #14/144 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 119,359 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: PlanStatus: Active
• Financial info: Listed price $134,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Plan: Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable)
• Exterior features: 891 living area (unit size)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area