20009 Packard St

Detroit, MI 48234

$149,900C+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1926 · MultiFamily · Active Under Contract · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $975/mo
• Annual: $11,705/yr
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $488/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 19 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $150k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 10.1% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,442/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2372% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.