28 Rancho Grande Cir

Atwater, CA 95301

$97,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $385/mo
• Annual: $4,624/yr
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.02%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $97k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shaffer Elementary (534 students, 85% FRL); Mitchell Intermediate (739 students, 80% FRL); Buhach Colony High (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,746 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior paint — Peeling paint on siding
• Major: exterior siding — Weathered and damaged