616 N Elson St

Kirksville, MO 63501

$20,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $912/mo
• Annual: $10,943/yr
• Cap rate: 61.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 195.40%
• DSCR: 9.69
• 1% rule: 6.84%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#211 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirksville R-III (town): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kirksville Primary (703 students, 49% FRL); William Matthew Middle School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #265 of 391 statewide, top 69%, 493 students, 44% FRL); Kirksville Sr. High (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 808 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 61.0% vs local median 5.2% in Kirksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.