616 N Elson St · Kirksville, MO 63501

$20,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1920 7,236 sqft lot $12/sqft · 89% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

11/2 story house on corner lot has been completely gutted and is ready for your new design! Call Gus Harris 660-216-7268 House is being sold "As-Is Where-Is"

Key facts

• 7,236 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 300 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 61.0% vs local median 5.2% in Kirksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#211 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirksville R-III (town): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kirksville Primary (703 students, 49% FRL); William Matthew Middle School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #265 of 391 statewide, top 69%, 493 students, 44% FRL); Kirksville Sr. High (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 808 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 195.40%
• DSCR: 9.69
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,787
• List price: $20,000
• Delta: -87.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 E Pierce St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-4%)	14mo	$144,900	$94	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.76×
• Total profit: $54,629
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.70×
• Total profit: $121,504
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63501

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $214

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $918	+0% $912	+5% $906	+10% $901
Rent	-10% $804	-5% $858	+0% $912	+5% $966	+10% $1,020
Rate	-1.0pp $922	-0.5pp $917	base $912	+0.5pp $907	+1.0pp $901

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $20,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 281 DOM
17. 2025-11-03
    price $20,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    11/2 story house on corner lot has been completely gutted and is ready for your new design! Call Gus Harris 660-216-7268 House is being sold "As-Is Where-Is"

18. 2025-08-22
    listed $26,500 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    11/2 story house on corner lot has been completely gutted and is ready for your new design! Call Gus Harris 660-216-7268 House is being sold "As-Is Where-Is"

19. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Property is being sold in as-is condition. Owner pays H2O. Call Kim Keyes for more information at 660-626-3920.

20. 2017-06-28
    listed $16,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Property is being sold in as-is condition. Owner pays H2O. Call Kim Keyes for more information at 660-626-3920.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $11,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,717
• After-tax cash flow: $8,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirksville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2916740
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,570
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6037
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirksville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #10590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirksville, MO
• County: Adair County · 21,218 people
• City population: 21,218
• Metro: Kirksville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,218
• Household income: $60,729
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Adair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,570 people
• By 2030: 25,728 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 25,556 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 25,811 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 29,164 · +14.1%
• By 2100: 31,846 · +24.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+24.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.58%
• Current HPI: 168.7332
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Kirksville, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $20,000 NECAR
• 2025-08-22 Listed $26,500 NECAR
• 2018-08-10 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2017-06-28 Listed $16,000 NECAR

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $670 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.