346 Mt. Mccauley Way

Central Garage, VA 23009

$320,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,217 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Pending · 375 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-671/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#392 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• King William County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #60 of 131 in VA (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cool Spring Primary (506 students, 45% FRL); Hamilton Holmes Middle (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #231 of 342 statewide, top 69%, 450 students, 41% FRL); King William High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 696 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in King William County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Central Garage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.