346 Mt. Mccauley Way · Central Garage, VA 23009

$320,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,217 sqft · Townhouse · 375 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $144/sqft · at area comps Est $318k · at est. $175/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

Key facts

• Large family room
• Large bonus room
• Full bath

Tags

• THREE STORY TOWNHOMES
• LOWER LEVEL GUEST ROOM
• FULL BATH
• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• LVP FLOORING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Central Garage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#392 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• King William County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #60 of 131 in VA (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cool Spring Primary (506 students, 45% FRL); Hamilton Holmes Middle (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #231 of 342 statewide, top 69%, 450 students, 41% FRL); King William High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 696 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in King William County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,436
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 0.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,265
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-52,094
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23009

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,021

Max offer price $311,904

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $55	+0% $-56	+5% $-167	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-172	+0% $-56	+5% $61	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $25	base $-56	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Eliza Ln Aylett, VA	4.0	2.5	2795	$2,950	$1.06	5d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

2. 2026-04-24
   price $320,000 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

3. 2026-04-10
   price $339,000 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

4. 2025-12-05
   price $365,000 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

5. 2025-06-30
   price $361,681 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

6. 2025-06-11
   price $353,641 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

7. 2025-04-25
   listed $353,361 Active 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   * MOVE IN READY * "Welcome to McCaulay Park in King William, VA, a vibrant community offering spacious three-story townhomes. Conveniently located just off Route 360, McCaulay Park provides easy access to Mechanicsville, where you'll find a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment options just 20 miles away. This stylish three-level Daphne townhome offers 2217 Square Feet of living space! Lower-level Guest room with Full Bath and Lower-level large Bonus Room with LVP flooring, LVP Floors throughout Main level, Large Family Room, eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Upper-level Bedrooms- Spacious Primary Suite and 2 additional bedrooms and Hall bathroom. Upstairs Laundry- Washer and Dryer Included. Please note that photos are of a similar home and may not reflect the actual property. " * First-time homebuyer grants available *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$5,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhouse in McCaulay Park, King William, VA, offers spacious living space with modern amenities and excellent curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Replace hardwood floors with tile in bathrooms — Tile is easier to clean and maintain
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Replace hardwood floors with tile in bathrooms — Tile is easier to clean and maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: King William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102120
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,630
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1834
• State rank: #60 of 131 in VA

Livability — Central Garage

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #16210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central Garage, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,203

Population outlook (King William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,840 people
• By 2030: 16,990 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 16,965 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 16,483 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 15,292 · -9.2%
• By 2100: 12,764 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · King William

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.3% · R 69.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.14%
• Current HPI: 177.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $320,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $339,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $365,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $361,681 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $353,641 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $353,361 CVRMLS