14848 Gold Lace Cactus

San Antonio, TX 78221

$192,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,672/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax + insurance: −$445
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,758/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $53,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?