14620 Stewart Rd

Beggs, OK 74047

$170,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-103/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-103/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#326 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Twin Hills (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 513 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.