412 State Highway 80

New Berlin, NY 13411

$120,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-178/mo
• Annual: $-2,131/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (21.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#960 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Unadilla Valley Central School District (rural): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #571 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Unadilla Valley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 465 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 49% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?