412 State Highway 80 · New Berlin, NY 13411

$120,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1940 4.02 ac lot Est $92k · 30% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

A 2 floor spacious home with 3-4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. An enclosed porch, wood deck and mudroom entry porch. Enter from the large attached carport. Basement can be accessed through bilco doors outside as well as inside the home. Heating is with 2 propane heaters on the main level. There are 3 storage out buildings on the property and two tax lots totalling over 4acres.

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Mudroom entry porch
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• WOOD DECK
• MUDROOM ENTRY PORCH
• LARGE ATTACHED CARPORT
• BILCO DOORS
• STORAGE OUT BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Carport; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story property; Existing structure; Irregular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Metal roof; Block and stone foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Porch; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Barn(s); Outbuilding; Shed(s); Additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air; Wall furnace; Heating present (see remarks)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Den; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Storage; Main level primary; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (21.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#960 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Unadilla Valley Central School District (rural): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #571 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Unadilla Valley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 465 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 49% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,631 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,454
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 State Highway 80	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-3%)	1mo	$90,000	$57	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $54,257
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $169,086
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13411

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,732/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $94,631

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-144	+0% $-178	+5% $-212	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-226	+0% $-178	+5% $-129	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-147	base $-178	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $120,000
3. 2025-10-28
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,732 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,732 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,732
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$4,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$975
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Unadilla Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600019
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,176
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6985
• State rank: #571 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Berlin

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #18789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,920

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.20%
• Current HPI: 323.6602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,732 · +62.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.