12307 Appleton Rd

Sedley, VA 23866

$129,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $184/mo
• Annual: $2,209/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southampton County Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 131 in VA (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nottoway Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 249 students, 79% FRL); Southampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 769 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Southampton County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Southampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Southampton County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.