12307 Appleton Rd · Sedley, VA 23866

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1995 2.10 ac lot Est $140k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2.1 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southampton County Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 131 in VA (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nottoway Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 249 students, 79% FRL); Southampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 769 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Southampton County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Southampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Southampton County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,910 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12307 Appleton Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$125	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $43,498
• Equity at exit: $75,631

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $120,397
• Equity at exit: $132,229

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23866

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 218.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $48
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $2,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103600
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $48,952
• Composite: 46.32/100
• National rank: #2472
• State rank: #85 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sedley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #15776

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,837

Population outlook (Southampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,420 people
• By 2030: 16,944 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 15,790 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 14,244 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 11,048 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 7,838 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Southampton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+16.2 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 318.8664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $129,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.