PAYTON Plan

Wilson's Mills, NC 27577

$266,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-779/mo
• Annual: $-9,346/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $90,201

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-779 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.