PAYTON Plan · Wilson's Mills, NC 27577

$266,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover new townhomes in Wilson's Mills, NC at The Townes at Wilson's Ridge, a thoughtfully planned community offering low-maintenance living with convenient access to everything Johnston County has to offer. Located just off Highway 70 and centrally situated between Clayton and Smithfield, The Townes at Wilson's Ridge makes it easy to reach everyday essentials while staying connected to nearby destinations including Downtown Clayton, Carolina Premium Outlets, Wilson's Mills Community Park, Reedy Creek Golf Course, and Raleigh. Designed for modern living, The Townes at Wilson's Ridge offers thoughtfully crafted townhomes featuring approximately 1,418 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Community amenities
• Cornhole area

Tags

• NEW TOWNHOMES
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PLAYGROUND
• COMMUNITY FIREPIT
• CORNHOLE AREA
• DOG PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $266,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,145.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-779 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,217 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,145
• List price: $266,990
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
265 Holton St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,497 (-7%)	0mo	$308,990	$206	81
116 Vignette Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	1mo	$305,990	$175	79
135 Carriedelle Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,497 (-7%)	6mo	$305,000	$204	79
110 Vignette Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	77
120 Carriedelle Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,497 (-7%)	6mo	$308,490	$206	77
125 Carriedelle Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	8mo	$314,315	$180	76
113 Daniel Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$319,990	$181	68
118 Daniel Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	2mo	$311,000	$176	68
180 Carriedelle Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	4mo	$315,000	$179	68
129 Daniel Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	4mo	$329,660	$187	68
89 Mitchner Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-7%)	2mo	$289,900	$193	63
93 Mitchner Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-7%)	4mo	$289,900	$193	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-107,149
• Equity at exit: $48,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-177,817
• Equity at exit: $27,853

Cash invested: $90,201 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,900 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 244 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,832/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,818

Max offer price $209,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-556	-5% $-668	+0% $-779	+5% $-890	+10% $-1,001
Rent	-10% $-924	-5% $-851	+0% $-779	+5% $-706	+10% $-634
Rate	-1.0pp $-617	-0.5pp $-697	base $-779	+0.5pp $-862	+1.0pp $-947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,536
• Closing costs: $9,664
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Vignette Dr Smithfield, NC	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,895	$0.95	10d	1	0.10mi
127 Yellow Stone Ln Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,645	$1.38	41d	1	0.16mi
156 Yellow Stone Ln Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,650	$1.38	10d	1	0.22mi
131 S Meyers CT Clayton, NC	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,725	$1.26	103d	1	0.47mi
131 S Meyers CT Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,725	$1.26	117d	1	0.47mi
111 Hunter Landing Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	10d	1	0.57mi
111 Hunter Landing Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	34d	1	0.57mi
111 Hunter Landing Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	53d	1	0.57mi
111 Hunter Landing Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	36d	1	0.57mi
138 Johnston Farms Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,575	$1.33	120d	1	0.71mi
89 Forest Island Ave Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	153d	1	0.94mi
133 Jade St Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,719	$1.04	2d	1	0.95mi
148 Clear Water Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	3.0	1484	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	1.06mi
148 Clear Water Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	3.0	1484	$1,700	$1.15	31d	1	1.06mi
148 Clear Water Dr Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,700	$1.15	45d	1	1.06mi
70 Dropseed Ln Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,799	$1.16	124d	1	1.18mi
511 Tralee Dr Smithfield, NC	4.0	3.0	2125	$2,000	$0.94	35d	1	1.23mi
179 Maple Tree Ln Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,895	$1.03	164d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 104 Holton St, Wilsons Mills, NC 27577Model/Plan name: PAYTONStatus: Active
• Financial info: List price $264,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan)New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan-built home (PAYTON plan)Living area approximately 1,614

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $266,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $266,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $266,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $266,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $266,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $266,990 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $266,990 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $266,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $266,990 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $266,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $266,990 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $266,990 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $266,990 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $266,990 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $266,990 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $266,990 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $266,990 Active 166 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $266,990 Active 165 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $266,990 Active 164 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $266,990 Active 163 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $266,990 Active 162 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $266,990 Active 161 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $266,990 Active 160 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $266,990 Active 159 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $266,990 Active 158 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $266,990 Active 157 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $266,990 Active 156 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $266,990 Active 155 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $266,990 Active 154 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $266,990 Active 153 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $266,990 Active 152 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $266,990 Active 151 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $266,990 Active 150 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $266,990 Active 149 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $266,990 Active 148 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $266,990 Active 147 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $266,990 Active 146 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $266,990 Active 145 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $266,990 Active 144 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $266,990 Active 143 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $266,990 Active 142 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $266,990 Active 141 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $266,990 Active 139 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $266,990 Active 138 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $266,990 Active 137 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $266,990 Active 136 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $266,990 Active 135 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $266,990 Active 134 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $266,990 Active 133 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $266,990 Active 132 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,045
• − Property taxes: −$4,832
• − Insurance: −$1,611
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$9,371
• Taxable loss: −$15,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,694
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhome in Wilson's Mills, NC is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a perfect balance of suburban comfort and city accessibility.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wilson's Mills Elementary F NC #1,175/1,410 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Smithfield Middle F NC #385/475 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Smithfield-Selma High F NC #454/535 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson's Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson's Mills, NC
• County: Johnston County · 222,440 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 104 Holton St, Wilsons Mills, NC 27577Model/Plan name: PAYTONStatus: Active
• Financial info: List price $264,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan)New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan-built home (PAYTON plan)Living area approximately 1,614