607 W Deck St

New Douglas, IL 62074

$38,000B-

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,485 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $599/mo
• Annual: $7,189/yr
• Cap rate: 25.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.56%
• DSCR: 4.01
• 1% rule: 2.87%
• Cash to close: $10,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,309 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Highland CUSD 5 (town): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #134 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alhambra Primary School (math 74% / reading 54%, grade B, #39 of 2,056 statewide, top 2%, 162 students, 0% FRL); Highland Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #136 of 665 statewide, top 21%, 607 students, 0% FRL); Highland High School (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #88 of 693 statewide, top 14%, 859 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.