607 W Deck St · New Douglas, IL 62074

$38,000

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1900 0.53 ac lot $26/sqft · 74% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Dimond In The Rough; 3 Bedroom & 3 Bath Home With A Two Car Detached Garage On 1/2 Acre Corner Lot

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Easy access
• Spacious lot

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• VALUABLE STORAGE
• WORKSHOP SPACE
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,485 (public records); Lot size about 0.5259 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels; Residential property type; Owned by bank
• Construction: Constructed with other materials
• Exterior features: Back yard; Lot dimensions approximately 145 x 158

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; One bedroom on the main level; Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One half bath total; One lower level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,309 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Highland CUSD 5 (town): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #134 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland High School (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #88 of 693 statewide, top 14%, 859 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.56%
• DSCR: 4.01
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,636
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -74.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 W Doulgas St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-2%)	16mo	$179,900	$124	65
411 N Main St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	20mo	$145,000	$112	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $32,014
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $77,075
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62074

• Home prices YoY: -15.5%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $612	+0% $599	+5% $586	+10% $573
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $556	+0% $599	+5% $642	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $618	-0.5pp $609	base $599	+0.5pp $589	+1.0pp $579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $38,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $38,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $38,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $38,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $38,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    listed $38,000 Active 1235-char remark
14. 2022-04-04
    soldstatus Closed 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    A Dimond In The Rough; 3 Bedroom & 3 Bath Home With A Two Car Detached Garage On 1/2 Acre Corner Lot

15. 2019-05-31
    historical
16. 2018-11-21
    price $110,500
17. 2015-12-21
    soldstatus
18. 2015-04-13
    listed $114,000
19. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus $115,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $7,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $5,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highland CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1718990
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,403
• Composite: 35.87/100
• National rank: #4816
• State rank: #134 of 620 in IL

Livability — New Douglas

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1309
• US rank: #24845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Douglas, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,236

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 148.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-67.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-12 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $38,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-21 Price Changed $110,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-13 Listed $114,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,086 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.