636 Rustic Dr

Carrollton, MI 48604

$137,500C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,483 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $247/mo
• Annual: $2,959/yr
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carrollton Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #485 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carrollton Elementary School (math 8% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,397 statewide, top 86%, 688 students, 83% FRL); Carrollton Middle School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #436 of 493 statewide, top 89%, 372 students, 81% FRL); Carrollton High School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #369 of 713 statewide, top 52%, 484 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $142.36M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $138k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.