636 Rustic Dr · Saginaw, MI 48604

$137,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1956 9,148 sqft lot Est $148k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is just off the beaten path enough to give you some space yet close to everything Saginaw has to offer. Plenty of yard to put in your own garden, let the kids play, or enjoy some green area. Pull into your garage and appreciate the entry and laundry room/bathroom to take off your shoes and coat. Easy access to the kitchen makes bringing in groceries simple. Nice eat-in breakfast nook where you can sit and relax. Or perhaps you'd like to sit in your dining room or sunroom. The living room is spacious enough for entertaining yet feels cozy. Each bedroom is roomy, and when you open the curtains, it's nice and bright. Enjoy the retro look of this home, or update it; either way, it has a great layout.

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Dining room
• Plenty of yard

Tags

• PLENTY OF YARD
• ENTRY AND LAUNDRY ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO KITCHEN
• EAT-IN BREAKFAST NOOK
• DINING ROOM
• SUNROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Shared septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wood stove; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood burning stove fireplace; Crawl space basement; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Carrollton Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #485 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $142.36M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $138k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $133,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Stinson Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,520 (+2%)	12mo	$141,000	$93	75
275 W Lynn St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+1%)	4mo	$150,000	$100	65
930 Stinson Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-13%)	11mo	$159,900	$123	55
927 Piper Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+12%)	10mo	$116,000	$70	55
704 Stoker Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,444 (-3%)	9mo	$54,900	$38	52
2942 Harrison St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+3%)	10mo	$155,000	$101	51
2136 Plainview Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-11%)	11mo	$158,000	$120	47
3356 Winter St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,263 (-15%)	5mo	$120,000	$95	45
2917 N Michigan Ave	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,609 (+8%)	4mo	$125,000	$78	42
2295 Plainview Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-10%)	11mo	$170,000	$127	42
288 Lynn St St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-11%)	14mo	$160,000	$121	41
3016 Monroe St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+13%)	8mo	$99,000	$59	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,634
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $14,205
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48604

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $498/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $286	+0% $247	+5% $208	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $193	+0% $247	+5% $300	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $282	base $247	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4070 Green Isle Way Saginaw, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,350	$1.42	45d	15	0.87mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,500 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $137,500 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,500 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,500 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,500 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $142,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,500 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,500 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,500 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $142,500
19. 2026-05-01
    price $142,500 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Great location, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is just off the beaten path enough to give you some space yet close to everything Saginaw has to offer. Plenty of yard to put in your own garden, let the kids play, or enjoy some green area. Pull into your garage and appreciate the entry and laundry room/bathroom to take off your shoes and coat. Easy access to the kitchen makes bringing in groceries simple. Nice eat-in breakfast nook where you can sit and relax. Or perhaps you'd like to sit in your dining room or sunroom. The living room is spacious enough for entertaining yet feels cozy. Each bedroom is roomy, and when you open the curtains, it's nice and bright. Enjoy the retro look of this home, or update it; either way, it has a great layout.

20. 2026-05-01
    listed $142,500,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Great location, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is just off the beaten path enough to give you some space yet close to everything Saginaw has to offer. Plenty of yard to put in your own garden, let the kids play, or enjoy some green area. Pull into your garage and appreciate the entry and laundry room/bathroom to take off your shoes and coat. Easy access to the kitchen makes bringing in groceries simple. Nice eat-in breakfast nook where you can sit and relax. Or perhaps you'd like to sit in your dining room or sunroom. The living room is spacious enough for entertaining yet feels cozy. Each bedroom is roomy, and when you open the curtains, it's nice and bright. Enjoy the retro look of this home, or update it; either way, it has a great layout.

21. 2026-05-01
    listed $142,500,000 Active 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Great location, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is just off the beaten path enough to give you some space yet close to everything Saginaw has to offer. Plenty of yard to put in your own garden, let the kids play, or enjoy some green area. Pull into your garage and appreciate the entry and laundry room/bathroom to take off your shoes and coat. Easy access to the kitchen makes bringing in groceries simple. Nice eat-in breakfast nook where you can sit and relax. Or perhaps you'd like to sit in your dining room or sunroom. The living room is spacious enough for entertaining yet feels cozy. Each bedroom is roomy, and when you open the curtains, it's nice and bright. Enjoy the retro look of this home, or update it; either way, it has a great layout.

22. 1999-03-16
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 1999-03-02
    soldstatus $65,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    ENCLOSED PORCH/3RD BR COULD BE DEN/EATING AREA IN KITCHEN/LOTS OF STORAGE/FURNACE IN CRAWL SPACE/ALARM SYSTEM/AIR CONDITIONER.

24. 1999-03-02
    soldstatus $65,000

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    ENCLOSED PORCH/3RD BR COULD BE DEN/EATING AREA IN KITCHEN/LOTS OF STORAGE/FURNACE IN CRAWL SPACE/ALARM SYSTEM/AIR CONDITIONER.

25. 1998-12-18
    listed $66,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    ENCLOSED PORCH/3RD BR COULD BE DEN/EATING AREA IN KITCHEN/LOTS OF STORAGE/FURNACE IN CRAWL SPACE/ALARM SYSTEM/AIR CONDITIONER.

26. 1998-12-18
    listed $66,900

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    ENCLOSED PORCH/3RD BR COULD BE DEN/EATING AREA IN KITCHEN/LOTS OF STORAGE/FURNACE IN CRAWL SPACE/ALARM SYSTEM/AIR CONDITIONER.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $498 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$810/yr (+$67/mo · 162.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$498
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$173
• After-tax cash flow: $2,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,147
• Composite: 14.74/100
• National rank: #9395
• State rank: #485 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 11,284

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.55%
• Current HPI: 210.5278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+113.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $142,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $142,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $142,500,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $142,500,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-03-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-12-18 Listed $66,900 REALCOMP
• 1998-12-18 Listed $66,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $498 · -79.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.