413 W Willow St

Stilwell, OK 74960

$89,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $206/mo
• Annual: $2,466/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#541 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: commute C-, schools F, crime F.
• Stilwell (town): math 6% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #258 of 270 in OK (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $90k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.