37667 Live Oak St

Oak Glen, CA 92305

$365,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-573/mo
• Annual: $-6,881/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (39.8% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,386 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fallsvale (math 54% / reading 84%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 68 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+35 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Bear Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $365k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in Oak Glen — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.