19 Alvern Ave

Massena, NY 13662

$65,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,119 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 448 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,034/yr
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $18,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#330 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, commute F.
• Massena Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #456 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.3% in Massena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.