19 Alvern Ave · Massena, NY 13662

$65,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,119 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 448 Days on market

Built 1953 5,680 sqft lot $59/sqft · 32% below area Est $97k · 32% under ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

Key facts

• Private yard
• Hardwood floors
• 5,680 sq ft lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.3% in Massena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#330 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, commute F.
• Massena Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #456 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 448 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 448 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,042
• List price: $65,900
• Delta: -32.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Ridgewood Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+7%)	6mo	$91,500	$77	77
14 Howard St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-6%)	3mo	$46,000	$44	76
29 Talcott St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+0%)	6mo	$101,000	$90	76
7 Alden St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-2%)	2mo	$54,000	$49	70
7 Douglas Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,006 (-10%)	6mo	$82,500	$82	66
62 Parker Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+12%)	9mo	$119,500	$96	60
13 Douglas Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-10%)	15mo	$82,500	$82	59
44 Grove St	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,232 (+10%)	17mo	$164,300	$133	53
14 Talcott St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (-11%)	14mo	$33,000	$33	51
38 Bishop Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+5%)	19mo	$80,000	$68	44
37 Bishop Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+12%)	12mo	$103,000	$83	39
60 Cornell Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+10%)	14mo	$125,000	$101	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $5,519
• Equity at exit: $9,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $25,922
• Equity at exit: $5,698

Cash invested: $18,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13662

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,509/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $65,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,475
• Closing costs: $1,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $65,900 Pending 448 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,900 Active 447 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $65,900 Active 446 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,900 Active 445 DOM
5. 2026-05-18
   price $65,900 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

6. 2025-11-18
   price $69,900 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

7. 2025-10-01
   status Active 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

8. 2025-06-17
   status Pending 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

9. 2025-05-10
   price $75,000 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

10. 2025-04-29
    status Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

11. 2025-04-22
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

12. 2025-03-03
    price $85,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

13. 2025-03-02
    status Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

14. 2025-02-22
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

15. 2024-12-27
    status Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

16. 2024-09-04
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

17. 2024-08-19
    price $95,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

18. 2024-07-20
    listed $105,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Cape Cod style home with a bedroom and bathroom on the main level and two bedrooms upstairs. Hardwood floors, a den, 2 car attached garage and a private yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,691
• − Property taxes: −$2,509
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$1,917
• Taxable income: $2,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Massena Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618660
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,610
• Composite: 38.75/100
• National rank: #4123
• State rank: #456 of 590 in NY

Livability — Massena

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5449

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Massena, NY
• City population: 15,737
• Population (ZIP): 15,737

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.77%
• Current HPI: 243.4674
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-37.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $65,900 SLCMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $69,900 SLCMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — SLCMLS
• 2025-06-17 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $75,000 SLCMLS
• 2025-04-29 Relisted — SLCMLS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $85,000 SLCMLS
• 2025-03-02 Relisted — SLCMLS
• 2025-02-22 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2024-12-27 Relisted — SLCMLS
• 2024-09-04 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $95,000 SLCMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listed $105,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,509 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.