3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,651 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 29 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,085/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,405
Tax + insurance
−$447
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$438
Net cashflow
$-205/mo
Annual
$-2,457/yr
Cap rate
5.38%
Cash-on-cash
-3.27%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$75,040
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (11.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (22.2% below list).
It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $209k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in TX, #1,740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Andrews El (math 35% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 636 students, 64% FRL); Gregory-Portland Middle (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,124 students, 48% FRL); Gregory-Portland H S (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 1,464 students, 45% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Portland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZSJYZA54Z2GEVN
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29