3885 Bartelink Dr

Rancho Calaveras, CA 95252

$249,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $517/mo
• Annual: $6,204/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#998 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jenny Lind Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,420 of 1,571 statewide, top 91%, 442 students, 42% FRL); Toyon Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 531 students, 46% FRL); Calaveras High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 746 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in Rancho Calaveras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.