3885 Bartelink Dr · Rancho Calaveras, CA 95252

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2004 0.50 ac lot Est $376k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 2-bed, 2-bath home in Valley Springs. Built in 2004 on a generous 0.5-acre lot, this 1,162 sqft single-family residence offers a flexible den with a closet, perfect for a home office or extra bedroom. The interior presents an opportunity for personalization with refreshed flooring and a renewed color palette. Climate control systems are ready for attention to ensure year-round comfort. This property invites you to create your ideal living space. Some photos have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 2004
• Construction: Stucco siding
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Yard space

Interior

• Kitchen: Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Has heating
• Interior features: Den; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.8% in Rancho Calaveras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#998 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jenny Lind Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,420 of 1,571 statewide, top 91%, 442 students, 42% FRL); Toyon Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 531 students, 46% FRL); Calaveras High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 746 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,488
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4276 Hartvickson Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,135 (-2%)	1mo	$367,500	$324	69
3068 Hartvickson Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (-2%)	1mo	$365,000	$322	58
5598 Cox Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (+13%)	15mo	$460,000	$350	53
3816 Dunn Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+10%)	12mo	$400,000	$313	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,521
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $36,043
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95252

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,839/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $588	+0% $517	+5% $446	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $404	+0% $517	+5% $630	+10% $742
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $581	base $517	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4447 Baldwin Ln Valley Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,850	$2.16	20d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $249,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-21
   listed $249,900 Active
8. 2004-10-15
   soldstatus $236,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,839 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,839 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,839
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $2,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$569
• After-tax cash flow: $5,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calaveras Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606870
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,559
• Composite: 20.06/100
• National rank: #8654
• State rank: #436 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Calaveras

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #998
• US rank: #24806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Calaveras, CA
• City population: 13,851
• Population (ZIP): 13,851

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.82%
• Current HPI: 203.4389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-21 Listed $249,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $236,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,839 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.