447 NW 1st Ave

Winnebago, MN 56098

$99,000A

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,507 sqft · Built 1883 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $644/mo
• Annual: $7,728/yr
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.88%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#162 in MN, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Earth Area Public School (town): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #245 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Faribault County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faribault County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.