447 NW 1st Ave · Winnebago, MN 56098

$99,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1883 0.34 ac lot Est $181k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Victorian brick classic full of character and ready for your personal touch. This spacious home features a stunning open staircase, beautiful original woodwork, pocket and French doors, and original hardwood flooring. The main level offers a generous layout including a parlor, living room, dining room, den, kitchen, ¾ bath, and convenient main-floor laundry. Upstairs, you’ll find four bedrooms, a full bath, and access to a walk-up attic. While the home does need some TLC and has deferred maintenance, it also includes important updates such as a furnace (2010), newer water heater (2024), updated electrical, and an owned Kinetico water system. Outside, enjoy the oversized detache

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Open staircase
• Pocket doors

Tags

• OPEN STAIRCASE
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• POCKET DOORS
• FRENCH DOORS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Cooktop; Range; Disposal
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with partial finish, unfinished areas, and a sump pump; Dishwasher; Disposal; Cooktop; Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#162 in MN, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Earth Area Public School (town): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #245 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Faribault County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Faribault County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.88%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,504
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
447 NW 1st Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,486 (-1%)	0mo	$99,000	$40	91
458 W Cleveland Avenue Ave	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,700 (+8%)	4mo	$265,000	$98	71
300 W Cleveland Ave Ave	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,690 (+7%)	11mo	$195,000	$72	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $90,608
• Equity at exit: $84,580

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.43×
• Total profit: $233,586
• Equity at exit: $177,710

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56098

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,100/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $672	+0% $644	+5% $616	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $579	+0% $644	+5% $709	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $669	base $644	+0.5pp $618	+1.0pp $592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-04
   listed $99,000 Active
4. 2003-03-26
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,100
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $6,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $6,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Earth Area Public School
• NCES district ID: 2700130
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,434
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6095
• State rank: #245 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winnebago

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnebago, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,946

Population outlook (Faribault County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,474 people
• By 2030: 13,112 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 12,454 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,973 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 11,565 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 10,844 · -19.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Faribault

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.4% · R 67.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -5.6pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.36%
• Current HPI: 281.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — RASM
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — RASM
• 2026-05-04 Listed $99,000 RASM
• 2003-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,100 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.