170 W River RD Rd W

Lexington, NE 68850

$35,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,973/yr
• Cap rate: 37.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.17%
• DSCR: 6.04
• 1% rule: 4.22%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in NE, #4,483 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 111 in NE (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morton Elementary School (360 students, 82% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #104 of 128 statewide, top 82%, 685 students, 73% FRL); Lexington High School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #232 of 261 statewide, top 89%, 913 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 38.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.