816 E Swede Rd

Caledonia, MI 48762

$180,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $17/mo
• Annual: $200/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($200/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#101 in MI, #2,449 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Caledonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.