816 E Swede Rd · Caledonia, MI 48762

$180,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

5.02 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Remodeled kitchen
• New hot water heater

Tags

• TWO STORY FARMHOUSE
• 5 ACRES
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($200/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Caledonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#101 in MI, #2,449 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $135,739 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $46,255
• Equity at exit: $106,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $137,063
• Equity at exit: $186,456

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48762

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

17. 2026-05-07
    price $190,000 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

18. 2026-05-02
    historical Active Under Contract 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

19. 2026-05-02
    status Pending 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

20. 2026-03-06
    price $215,000 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

21. 2026-02-06
    listed $220,000 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Charming two story farmhouse set on 5+/- acres in Spruce. This 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a functional layout with one bedroom being on the main level and three bedrooms upstairs. The main living room and kitchen have been completely remodeled, blending modern updates with classic farmhouse character. Major improvements include a new furnace, new roof, new hot water heater, and a new electrical panel. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the large porch overlooking the property. Outside, the land is well suited for a hobby farm, featuring a well established apple orchard, two older barns with plenty of storage, and a detached two car garage. A wonderful opportunity for those seeking space, privacy, and country living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,166/yr (+$97/mo · 264.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alcona Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602160
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,164
• Composite: 25.03/100
• National rank: #7552
• State rank: #374 of 540 in MI

Livability — Caledonia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #2449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,014

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 8% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Current HPI: 166.1424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $190,000 WWMLS
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $215,000 WWMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $220,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.