2267 Triway Ln #231

Houston, TX 77043

$168,500D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1969 · Townhouse · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$340
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,348/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $47,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (20.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood El (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 409 students, 93% FRL); Spring Oaks Middle (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 644 students, 91% FRL); Spring Woods H S (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,113 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?