4401 Hughes Ln #200

Bakersfield, CA 93304

$35,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$188
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $736/mo
• Annual: $8,827/yr
• Cap rate: 30.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.81%
• DSCR: 4.91
• 1% rule: 3.47%
• Cash to close: $10,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $248 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.