4401 Hughes Ln #200 · Bakersfield, CA 93304

$35,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974 ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller. All reasonable offers considered. Mobil home, offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, Great location for an affordable price. While some updating are needed, this property presents an excellent opportunity for those looking to customize their living space. With a little bit of work, this home has the potential to become a cozy inviting place tailored to your preferences. The highlight of the property is its beautiful backyard, boasting a serene atmosphere and featuring a lime tree and an orange tree providing endless fresh juice. Imagine enjoying the tranquility and harvesting fresh fruits right from your own yard. This mobile home presents a very affordable chance to own a p

Key facts

• Orange tree
• Lime tree
• Community pool

Tags

• LIME TREE
• ORANGE TREE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer service
• Home design: Leased space; Owner occupant type
• Construction: Other roof (see remarks); Other exterior material (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Located in R1 zone; Lot listed in square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: Formal living room; Great room; Breakfast area; Range/Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $248 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,361 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.81%
• DSCR: 4.91
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4401 Hughes Ln #74	0.00mi	2/1.0	756 (+5%)	22mo	$70,000	$93	73
3504 Prestige Ln	0.55mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	19mo	$115,000	$147	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $37,400
• Equity at exit: $5,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.85×
• Total profit: $78,866
• Equity at exit: $3,104

Cash invested: $10,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93304

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $314

Max offer price $35,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $748	+0% $736	+5% $723	+10% $711
Rent	-10% $637	-5% $686	+0% $736	+5% $785	+10% $834
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $745	base $736	+0.5pp $726	+1.0pp $717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,975
• Closing costs: $1,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3401 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	44d	1	0.76mi
4301 Poach St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	475	$1,325	$2.79	22d	1	0.80mi
1821 Lacey St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	15d	1	0.94mi
2801 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	3d	2	1.09mi
2601 Fremont St Unit 054 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$990	$2.48	3d	1	1.14mi
2601 Fremont St Unit 40 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$800	$2.00	11d	1	1.14mi
4600 Beechwood St Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	642	$1,550	$2.41	11d	1	1.37mi
4701 Beechwood St #67 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,275	$2.41	3d	1	1.40mi
3800 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	480	$1,250	$2.60	20d	2	1.41mi
3800 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	565	$1,250	$2.21	44d	1	1.41mi
2909 S Chester Ave Unit 16 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$995	$1.42	3d	1	1.46mi
1209 Wilson Rd Unit A Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	360	$1,100	$3.06	15d	1	1.48mi
2224 S Real Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	611	$1,125	$1.84	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $44,900 Active
17. 2026-02-26
    listed $44,900 Active
18. 2025-12-25
    price $59,900
19. 2025-11-25
    listed $69,900 Active
20. 2025-09-22
    listed $69,900 Active
21. 2025-09-17
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2025-08-28
    listed $69,900 Active
23. 2025-08-11
    listed $69,900 Active
24. 2025-06-19
    price $69,900
25. 2025-06-01
    price $89,990
26. 2025-05-07
    listed $99,990 Active
27. 2024-02-24
    price $50,000
28. 2024-02-24
    price $50,000
29. 2024-02-22
    price $45,000
30. 2024-01-26
    price $60,000
31. 2024-01-24
    price $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,011
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$1,044
• Taxable income: $8,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $6,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,037
• Household income: $50,790
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2587.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 18% White 14% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.78%
• Current HPI: 397.9557
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $44,900 GEMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $44,900 GEMLS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $59,900 GEMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $69,900 GEMLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $89,990 GEMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $99,990 GEMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $50,000 GEMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $50,000 GEMLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $45,000 GEMLS
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $60,000 GEMLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $50,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $35 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.