453 Moores Mill Rd Unit 453-3

Bel Air, MD 21014

$70,000B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,784/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$578
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $353/mo
• Annual: $4,233/yr
• Cap rate: 12.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.60%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 2.55%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MD, #563 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bel Air Elementary (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #133 of 860 statewide, top 16%, 532 students, 33% FRL); Bel Air Middle (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #51 of 225 statewide, top 23%, 1,138 students, 23% FRL); Bel Air High (math 73% / reading 71%, grade B+, #34 of 222 statewide, top 15%, 1,489 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.9% in Bel Air — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.