453 Moores Mill Rd Unit 453-3 · Bel Air, MD 21014

$70,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1970 $578/mo HOA · 32% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

List Price is Opening Bid. Online Auction Only! Online Auction Only! Bidding begins Wednesday, June 3, and ends Monday, June 8, 2026 at 2:00 pm. Welcome to this well-kept 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo in the sought-after Moores Mill Manor community of Bel Air. Situated on the second floor, this condo features a functional, open layout with a bright living and dining area, complemented by wall-to-wall carpeting throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. The kitchen features durable tile flooring, generous cabinet storage, and plenty of workspace. The primary bedroom includes its own private half bath, while a full hall bathroom conveniently serves both guests and the second bedroom. Outside

Key facts

• Forced-air heating
• Personal balcony
• $578 HOA

Tags

• PERSONAL BALCONY
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• FORCED-AIR HEATING
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $578; Condo fee covers cable TV, lawn maintenance, management, reserve funds, road maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, water, and common area maintenance; Pets allowed with size/weight and number restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat); Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Single-floor unit; Entry on level 2; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction materials; Above grade and below grade structures
• Exterior features: Located within city limits (Bel Air); Directions: Rock Spring Rd onto Moores Mill Rd.

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Other fuel for heating and cooling; Other hot water source
• Interior features: No basement; Living area reported by assessor
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.9% in Bel Air — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MD, #563 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bel Air Elementary (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #133 of 860 statewide, top 16%, 532 students, 33% FRL); Bel Air Middle (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #51 of 225 statewide, top 23%, 1,138 students, 23% FRL); Bel Air High (math 73% / reading 71%, grade B+, #34 of 222 statewide, top 15%, 1,489 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.60%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $9,356
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $30,019
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21014

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $991/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$578
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $373	+0% $353	+5% $333	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $282	+0% $353	+5% $423	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $371	base $353	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Candlelight Dr Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	849	$1,899	$2.24	6d	1	0.03mi
207 Crocker Dr Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0	1037	$1,649	$1.59	6d	3	0.21mi
208 Timber Trl #208 Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	17d	1	0.25mi
407 Aggies Cir #4 Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,000	$1.79	6d	1	0.45mi
45 E Gordon St Unit 3 Bel Air, MD	2.0	2.0	1005	$2,100	$2.09	45d	1	0.59mi
138 Alice Ann St Unit 140 Bel Air, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	45d	1	0.82mi
133 Alice Ann St Bel Air, MD	1.0	1.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	25d	1	0.84mi
201 Idlewild Rd Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0–1.5	885	$2,120	$2.40	0d	27	1.39mi
1610 Michelle Ct Forest Hill, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	940	$1,930	$2.05	0d	15	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $578 · $6,936/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $70,000 Active 1386-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    historical
17. 2026-04-22
    price $145,000
18. 2026-04-20
    status Active
19. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-04-11
    listed $115,000 Active
21. 2026-04-01
    historical
22. 2026-03-10
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2026-03-09
    historical
24. 2024-11-27
    soldstatus $149,000 Closed
25. 2024-10-30
    status Pending
26. 2024-10-26
    price $135,000
27. 2024-09-25
    listed $149,900 Active
28. 1988-02-11
    soldstatus $37,525
29. 1988-02-11
    soldstatus $37,525
30. 1983-08-29
    soldstatus $37,525

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$991
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$6,936
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #563

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 68,720
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 38,707
• Household income: $116,970
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 912.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.39%
• Current HPI: 265.5259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+153.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-27 Sold (MLS) $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $37,525 Public Records
• 1988-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $37,525 Public Records
• 1983-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $37,525 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $991 · +152.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.