1872 SE Colony Way

Jupiter, FL 33478

$1,025,000B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,230 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,375
• Tax + insurance: −$779
• HOA: −$262
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,035
• Net cashflow: $8,762/mo
• Annual: $105,146/yr
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.64%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $287,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.02M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($105k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.02M).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($902k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $902k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $31k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 441 students, 38% FRL); Dr. David L. Anderson Middle School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,035 students, 63% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $250k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $294k; list at $1.02M implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $287k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.8% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $19,214/mo this rent would consume 162% of the median local household income ($142k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.