16407 Brookford Dr

Houston, TX 77059

$259,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$571
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-183/mo
• Annual: $-2,197/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Armand Bayou El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 500 students, 50% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Lake H S (math 57% / reading 65%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,533 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $259k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.