16407 Brookford Dr · Houston, TX 77059

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1971 7,017 sqft lot Est $266k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great location home with many upgrades. All popcorn ceiling removed, Ceiling and walls have been re-textured to look fresh and modern (Contractor called Level 5 texture)and painted a base color. Recently installed, 5 inch base boards, light fixtures, ceramic stove top oven, raised panel interior doors. Hall bath with oversize bath tub, vanity, toilet, and super KOOL vanity mirror. Primary suite has new carpet, vanity, lights, mirror, toilet and medicine cabinets. Secondary Bedroom has custom built Murphy Bed frame. Side by Side refrigerator remains. AC-Heat 2022, Roof 2019, Double pane windows 2019-2021(all but 2), all with various warranties. Foundation 2016. Fiber cement siding. Electrica

Key facts

• New carpet
• Fiber cement siding
• 8x10 tuff shed

Tags

• POPCORN CEILING REMOVED
• NEW CARPET
• CUSTOM BUILT MURPHY BED FRAME
• FIBER CEMENT SIDING
• 8X10 TUFF SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Middlebrook HOA with annual fee ($550) covering common areas and recreation facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, picnic area, playground, pickleball, park, pool, and tennis courts; Community features: community pool, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Shingle (composition) roof; Built in 1971
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Storage shed; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Pantry; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Armand Bayou El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 500 students, 50% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Lake H S (math 57% / reading 65%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,533 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $259k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,656 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16411 Cavendish Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$173	95
16219 Cavendish Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+1%)	8mo	$294,000	$175	83
16230 Dunmoor Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-6%)	0mo	$349,990	$224	77
16019 Cavendish Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+5%)	5mo	$250,000	$143	73
15919 Parksley Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+1%)	8mo	$274,900	$163	73
16450 Havenhurst Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+8%)	9mo	$335,000	$186	71
16227 Mill Point Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$117	70
15915 Dunmoor Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+4%)	4mo	$210,000	$122	70
15806 Cavendish Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+4%)	5mo	$249,900	$145	66
15818 Dunmoor	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (+9%)	5mo	$288,800	$160	53
15718 Havenhurst Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+14%)	8mo	$279,900	$147	45
15718 Dunmoor Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,877 (+13%)	7mo	$259,990	$139	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,649
• Equity at exit: $56,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,909
• Equity at exit: $54,388

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77059

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$463 /mo · $5,562/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501

Max offer price $226,656

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-110	+0% $-183	+5% $-256	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-273	+0% $-183	+5% $-93	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-117	base $-183	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15911 Parksley Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	45d	1	0.45mi
15814 Havenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,000	$1.17	45d	1	0.50mi
15500 Middlebrook Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,690	$2.73	0d	34	0.86mi
3830 Princeton Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2075	$1,300	$0.63	4d	1	0.88mi
3808 Carnegie Park Ct Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1451	$2,805	$1.93	18d	1	1.04mi
4300 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,181	$1.95	0d	31	1.06mi
3306 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,245	$1.59	45d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Pending 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Pending 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $259,000 Pending 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-28
    listed $269,000 Active
11. 2001-09-26
    soldstatus
12. 1995-12-15
    soldstatus $84,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,562 · $463/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,562 · $463/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$5,562
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$6,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 18,386

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 6% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.49%
• Current HPI: 205.3504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+217.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2001-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $84,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,562 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.