1507 Bronwyn Rd #301

Tuckahoe, VA 23238

$213,750D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,121
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$773
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-330/mo
• Annual: $-3,965/yr
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.62%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $59,850

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (27.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in VA, #4,108 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 354 students, 26% FRL); Quioccasin Middle (math 36% / reading 52%, grade D, #282 of 342 statewide, top 83%, 1,040 students, 89% FRL); Douglas S. Freeman High (math 63% / reading 89%, grade A-, #102 of 319 statewide, top 32%, 1,860 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $214k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Tuckahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?