1507 Bronwyn Rd #301 · Tuckahoe, VA 23238

$213,750

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1976 $102/sqft · 28% below area Est $296k · 28% under $773/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The rare top floor penthouse unit in Regency Woods offers exception square footage with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms in a two story condo that boasts a balcony and also a balcony deck. 2098 square feet includes living room with fireplace, breakfast nook just next to the kitchen and a large formal dining room. This first floor also contains a bedroom, half bathroom and a large laundry room. A quick trip upstairs has 4 more bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Fantastic location to everything that is the West End or stay home and enjoy the tennis court, fenced in pool area, community clubhouse, picnic area and much more. These large penthouse units do not come around often and at this price this

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Fenced in pool area
• Top floor penthouse

Tags

• TOP FLOOR PENTHOUSE
• BALCONY
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LARGE FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FENCED IN POOL AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes management, clubhouse, common areas, grounds and structure maintenance, pools, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, storage facilities, common grounds and maintained community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Entry level is 3; Attached property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Community outdoor in-ground pool (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (serves kitchen and other fixtures)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Second-floor full bath with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Masonry fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (27.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Tuckahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in VA, #4,108 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 354 students, 26% FRL); Quioccasin Middle (math 36% / reading 52%, grade D, #282 of 342 statewide, top 83%, 1,040 students, 89% FRL); Douglas S. Freeman High (math 63% / reading 89%, grade A-, #102 of 319 statewide, top 32%, 1,860 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $214k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,388 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.62%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,248
• List price: $213,750
• Delta: -27.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-57,334
• Equity at exit: $31,871

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-83,674
• Equity at exit: $18,481

Cash invested: $59,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23238

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,121
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$773
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $155,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-270	+0% $-330	+5% $-391	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-421	+0% $-330	+5% $-240	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-276	base $-330	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,438
• Closing costs: $6,412
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Chase Gayton Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,278	$2.09	3d	22	0.13mi
10002 Castile Ct Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1329	$2,634	$1.98	3d	40	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $773 · $9,276/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $213,750 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,750 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,750 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,750 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,750 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $213,750 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,750 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $213,750 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $213,750 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $213,750 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,750 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,750 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,750 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,750 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $225,000 Active 738-char remark
16. 2025-10-31
    historical
17. 2025-06-30
    price $274,500
18. 2025-03-27
    price $284,000
19. 2025-02-15
    listed $299,500 Active
20. 1996-09-01
    soldstatus $92,500
21. 1988-10-01
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,973
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$1,069
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − HOA: −$9,276
• − Depreciation: −$6,218
• Taxable loss: −$7,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tuckahoe

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #4108

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 26,050
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 26,050
• Household income: $101,523
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1172.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.91%
• Current HPI: 388.2419
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+145.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $213,750 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $274,500 CVRMLS
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $284,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-02-15 Listed $299,500 CVRMLS
• 1996-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 1988-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,800 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.