614 4th St

Natalia, TX 78059

$56,400A-

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 1098 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$296
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $414/mo
• Annual: $4,971/yr
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.48%
• DSCR: 2.40
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $15,792

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 1098 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($390 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Natalia ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #735 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Natalia El (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 323 students, 78% FRL); Natalia J H (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 260 students, 75% FRL); Natalia H S (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 331 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 1.1% in Natalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 1098 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.