614 4th St · Natalia, TX 78059

$56,400

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1098 Days on market

Built 1950 8,276 sqft lot $54/sqft · 37% below area Est $90k · 37% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large City Lot. total renovation/tear down, but the potential is amazing for the right person. Beautiful mature pecan trees, with enclosed patio. Natalia city, schools, Medina County. Cash or Investment loans only. 25'X53' fenced in area.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: NATALIA

Exterior

• Parking: Three-car garage
• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Wood exterior; Pre-owned property; Approximately 74 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage building / shed; Mature trees; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 12 x 8
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (approx. 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating fuel (see remarks)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Some window coverings remain

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 1.1% in Natalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Natalia ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #735 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Natalia El (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 323 students, 78% FRL); Natalia J H (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 260 students, 75% FRL); Natalia H S (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 331 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($390 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1098 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1098 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.48%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $56,400
• Delta: -37.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 4th	0.51mi	2/2.0 (+1)	896 (-14%)	2mo	$90,000	$100	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $31,081
• Equity at exit: $23,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $76,382
• Equity at exit: $33,977

Cash invested: $15,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78059

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$296
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $476

Max offer price $56,400

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $430	+0% $414	+5% $398	+10% $382
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $375	+0% $414	+5% $454	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $429	base $414	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,100
• Closing costs: $1,692
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 County Road 6715 Natalia, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	45d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $56,400 Active 1098 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $56,400 Active 1097 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,400 Active 1095 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,400 Active 1094 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,400 Active 1093 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,400 Active 1092 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,400 Active 1091 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,400 Active 1090 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,400 Active 1089 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $56,400 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $56,400 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $56,400 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $56,400 Active 1082 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $56,400 Active 1080 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,400 Active 1079 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,400 Active 1078 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,400 Active 1077 DOM
18. 2025-10-28
    price $56,400
19. 2025-01-02
    status Back on Market
20. 2024-12-31
    historical
21. 2024-10-27
    price $56,500
22. 2024-05-22
    price $57,000
23. 2024-01-29
    price $58,000
24. 2023-12-19
    price $69,000
25. 2023-12-18
    status Price Change
26. 2023-11-08
    historical
27. 2023-05-08
    listed $79,000 New
28. 2023-03-17
    historical
29. 2022-04-25
    listed $65,000 New
30. 2022-04-06
    historical
31. 2021-09-07
    listed $65,000 New
32. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,159
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,641
• Taxable income: $4,321
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $3,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natalia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832130
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,941
• Composite: 19.86/100
• National rank: #8692
• State rank: #735 of 826 in TX

Livability — Natalia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #821
• US rank: #14875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natalia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,139

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 27% White 27% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Current HPI: 231.2357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $56,400 LERA
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $56,500 LERA
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $57,000 LERA
• 2024-01-29 Price Changed $58,000 LERA
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed $69,000 LERA
• 2023-12-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-05-08 Listed $79,000 LERA
• 2023-03-17 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-04-25 Listed $65,000 LERA
• 2022-04-06 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-09-07 Listed $65,000 LERA
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · -27.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.