9072 Beard Rd

Byron, MI 48418

$195,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,142/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#410 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Byron Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Byron Area Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 314 students, 57% FRL); Byron Area Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #248 of 493 statewide, top 53%, 124 students, 46% FRL); Byron Area High School (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #154 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 236 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $195k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Byron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.