9072 Beard Rd · Byron, MI 48418

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1989
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Home design: Built in 1989
• Exterior features: Sits on a 1.3-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Byron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#410 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Byron Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Byron Area Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 314 students, 57% FRL); Byron Area Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #248 of 493 statewide, top 53%, 124 students, 46% FRL); Byron Area High School (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #154 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 236 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $195k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $148,933 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,683
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-40,716
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48418

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,015/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $178,189

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-40	+0% $-95	+5% $-150	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-154	+0% $-95	+5% $-36	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-46	base $-95	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $195,000 Active 436-char remark
20. 2026-05-05
    listed $195,000 Active 506-char remark
21. 2021-02-18
    soldstatus $86,000
22. 2021-02-08
    soldstatus $86,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

23. 2021-02-08
    soldstatus $86,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

24. 2021-01-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

25. 2021-01-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

26. 2021-01-19
    price $106,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

27. 2021-01-18
    price $106,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

28. 2020-11-25
    price $110,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

29. 2020-11-25
    price $110,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

30. 2020-11-17
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

31. 2020-11-17
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

32. 2020-10-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

33. 2020-10-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

34. 2020-10-12
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

35. 2020-10-12
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

36. 2020-07-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

37. 2020-07-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

38. 2020-06-12
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

39. 2020-06-07
    price $120,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

40. 2020-06-07
    historical $115,000

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

41. 2020-06-07
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home with full basement *

42. 2011-04-14
    historical
43. 2011-04-14
    historical
44. 2010-10-29
    listed $30,000
45. 2010-10-29
    listed $30,000
46. 2010-06-09
    historical
47. 2009-08-31
    listed $84,500
48. 2005-11-04
    historical
49. 2005-01-07
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,015 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$494/yr (+$41/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,015
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Byron Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2607530
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,292
• Composite: 33.99/100
• National rank: #5319
• State rank: #215 of 540 in MI

Livability — Byron

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #11251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,544

Population outlook (Shiawassee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,238 people
• By 2030: 61,434 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 55,054 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 35,995 · -44.0%
• By 2100: 26,678 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shiawassee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.7% · R 60.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.15%
• Current HPI: 251.0826
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $195,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-08 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-02-08 Sold (MLS) $86,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-01-19 Price Changed $106,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-18 Price Changed $106,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-11-25 Price Changed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-25 Price Changed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-11-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-12 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-12 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-07-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-06-12 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-07 Price Changed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-07 Coming Soon $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-07 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-04-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2011-04-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-10-29 Listed $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-10-29 Listed $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-08-31 Listed $84,500 REALCOMP
• 2005-11-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-01-07 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,015 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.