2915 Mclean Chapel Church Rd

Bunnlevel, NC 28323

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-757/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#676 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Creek Primary (582 students, 61% FRL); Overhills Middle (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #292 of 475 statewide, top 62%, 799 students, 61% FRL); Overhills High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,971 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $250k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Bunnlevel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.