2915 Mclean Chapel Church Rd · Bunnlevel, NC 28323

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2001 0.88 ac lot Est $273k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home is move-in ready with a new roof covering, new vinyl siding, new windows, new appliances, new water heater, and new carpet/LVP! Talk about a package deal! The lot is large enough for enjoyment, recreation, a garden, and so much more. The interior is stylishly appointed and waiting to wow your guests while providing a comfortable place to call home. Make your showing appointment today!

Key facts

• New carpet
• New water heater
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW ROOF COVERING
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RA-20M
• Financial info: Annual tax shown
• HOA & community: No homeowner association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Manufactured house
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Lot approximately 0.88 acre; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace(s); Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and luxury vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Bunnlevel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#676 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Creek Primary (582 students, 61% FRL); Overhills Middle (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #292 of 475 statewide, top 62%, 799 students, 61% FRL); Overhills High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,971 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $250k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,122 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,916
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2455 Mclean Chapel Church Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-14%)	6mo	$235,000	$133	52
2325 Mclean Chapel Church Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,251 (+10%)	16mo	$275,000	$122	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-715
• Equity at exit: $83,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $39,095
• Equity at exit: $110,592

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28323

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,871

Max offer price $238,762

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $8	+0% $-63	+5% $-134	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-134	+0% $-63	+5% $8	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $1	base $-63	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $259,900
18. 2026-03-13
    price $264,900
19. 2026-02-28
    listed $269,900 Active
20. 2026-01-23
    historical
21. 2025-12-09
    price $274,900
22. 2025-12-09
    price $274,900
23. 2025-10-31
    price $279,900
24. 2025-10-31
    price $279,900
25. 2025-10-24
    listed $289,900 Active
26. 2025-10-24
    listed $289,900 Active
27. 2025-07-01
    soldstatus $120,000
28. 2025-07-01
    soldstatus $125,000
29. 2006-02-19
    soldstatus $41,000
30. 2006-02-19
    soldstatus $41,000
31. 2006-02-17
    soldstatus $41,000
32. 2006-02-16
    soldstatus $41,000
33. 2005-12-01
    listed $43,700
34. 2005-12-01
    listed $43,700
35. 2005-11-15
    listed $43,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,287/yr (+$107/mo · 169.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bunnlevel

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #676
• US rank: #24624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,864

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Current HPI: 239.6836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+494.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $259,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $264,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $269,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $274,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $274,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $279,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $279,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $289,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $289,900 TMLS
• 2025-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-19 Sold (MLS) $41,000 AMLSNC
• 2006-02-19 Sold (MLS) $41,000 TMLS
• 2006-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-16 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $43,700 AMLSNC
• 2005-12-01 Listed $43,700 TMLS
• 2005-11-15 Listed $43,700 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.