15 Stevens Cove Dr

Margaret, AL 35004

$219,850D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,401 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 259 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-809/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $61,558

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-809/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moody Elementary School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #76 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 835 students, 54% FRL); Moody Middle School (math 20% / reading 61%, grade F, #56 of 257 statewide, top 22%, 524 students, 61% FRL); Moody High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 687 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12719% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Margaret — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.