4123 Tillie Cir #40

Chattanooga, TN 37419

$222,900D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · Built 2025 · Condo · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$163
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,837/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $62,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $223k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in TN, #2,582 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lookout Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 268 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Chattanooga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.